Steel prices soar during the hottest period

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Will the steel price soar

recently, the national steel market price continued to rise, and the rise showed signs of gradual expansion. The adjustment of the national monetary policy and the in-depth implementation of environmental protection and production restriction are the most important reasons for the expansion of the price rise this week. Market expectations have changed significantly. The fundamentals of acceptable performance, the decline of both warehouses, also strengthened market confidence. In August, these factors still directly or indirectly affect the pulse of the market trend, which is a major positive for the market

last week, Tangshan began to implement the 43 day policy of centralized emission reduction and production restriction of three gases, which triggered the expectation of supply contraction, superimposed the monetary policy from tight to loose, and the market confidence returned. The futures and spot prices went up in the off-season

on July 27, the main contract of screw thread reached a maximum of 4146 yuan, 3733 yuan higher than the low point at the beginning of the month, with an increase of 413 yuan! Compared with the low point of 3163 yuan in 26 years in March, it is as high as 983! In terms of spot goods, Tangshan steel billet has surged by 200 yuan from 3600 yuan at the beginning of the month to 3800 yuan at the end of the month. In addition to the slightly poor performance of medium and heavy plate, the price of other varieties, especially spiral, increased better, but the overall futures market is better than spot, long materials are better than plates, and finished materials are better than raw materials

it should be noted that:

first, how about the implementation of environmental protection and production restriction? The sustainability of the later stage, etc. At present, the expectation of supply tightening has indeed been achieved! In addition, environmental protection policies have been systematized, strengthened, expanded and randomized recently! After Xuzhou released the 2018 action plan for air pollution prevention and control in April, the supply of steel mills and coking plants has been greatly restrained, and the randomness of production reduction is also increasing due to major conference activities such as the Qingdao Shanghai Cooperation summit and weather factors. The State Council's "three-year action plan for winning the blue sky defense to make products smooth and silky and comfortable", as well as Tangshan's environmental protection production restriction in July, followed by Changzhou's production restriction in Jiangsu Province: a number of Steel Enterprises Limited production, involving 2% to 3% of the country's crude steel output. Although steel mills in Xuzhou and other places gradually began to resume production after the completion of acceptance, the impact on the market has been digested compared with the recent production restriction

although the crude steel output remained high driven by high profits, the spiral production continued to decline. By the end of July, the total inventory of rebar had fallen to the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. At the same time, it is also reflected in the obvious decline of factory and social warehouses. Judging from the blast furnace operating rate of domestic small and medium-sized steel enterprises, it has begun to decline significantly. According to 12. The accuracy of deformation indication%: within ± 0.5% of the indicated value, the blast furnace operating rate of 100 small and medium-sized steel enterprises across the country (phase 136): on July 27, 2018, 78 blast furnaces in 48 steel plants were overhauled (including shutdown and stewing equipment, the same below), an increase of 12 over last week. The volume of overhauled blast furnaces is 55150 cubic meters with 80 year extrusion forming technology, 5190 cubic meters more than last week. Calculated by volume, the blast furnace operating rate of 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises was 84.84%, down 1.43 percentage points from last week

according to market research, with the successive implementation of production suspension and restriction in Tangshan on the 20th, many counties and cities in Tangshan issued announcements or notices to implement the production restriction and shutdown plan to all steel mills, and Fengrun district is even more to the specific blast furnace of steel mills. Jinxi and other listed steel enterprises directly released detailed rules on production restriction in the announcement, and the implementation of production restriction was much stronger than before. However, some problems were also found: for example, the document required that the production restriction of key districts and counties in the city should be 50%, and the surrounding sub priorities should be 30%, but the overall production restriction level of the actual survey was%; In addition, in order to confirm the shutdown of the pickling furnace required by the previous documents, there are few steel mills to implement it; At the same time, most of the information that can be collected is the maintenance plan of the steel plant in about ten days. Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the depth of production restriction in the later stage

in addition, from the perspective of macro policy, the Sino US trade war has disrupted the process of domestic in-depth reform, and China has sacrificed two killer maces, such as expanding domestic demand and monetary easing. Good for the general public, especially the liquidity released by monetary policy has greatly changed market expectations! Do emotional arousal successfully. But at present, it is difficult to see this turn. Despite the frequent occurrence of supporting policies in the context of the trade war, consumers have put forward higher requirements for automotive products: energy saving, beauty, safety, environmental protection, etc., but once the shift is equal to the total negation of the previous efforts and achievements, it is not worth the loss. Therefore, it is important to fine tune, moderately loose and grasp the scale. The trend in this aspect in the later stage needs to be improved and observed. I'm afraid it's difficult to take this opportunity to soar. At least it's not very clear for now

in addition, the current price in recent days has repeatedly broken through the integer level of 4000 yuan, and repeatedly fluctuated around this point. Although the disk still showed a strong upward attack on Friday, breaking through the previous pressure level at one fell swoop, creating a new high in nearly 10 months. But from a technical point of view, this position is more sensitive, and the fear of heights correspondingly exists. At the same time, with the periodic repair of the discount, there is a certain pressure to pull up sharply again

from the perspective of demand, although real estate investment has declined, the sales and new construction area data are good. This industry, which directly or indirectly affects 60% or 70% of the steel industry, has a negative impact on offsetting part of the seasonal impact and trade war under the background of strong capital liquidity

on the whole, the steel market may fluctuate strongly in August, driven by favorable policies such as monetary easing, expansion of environmental protection and production restriction, and expansion of domestic demand. However, the clouds of the trade war remain and there is uncertainty in the macro news, superimposing fear of heights. Once there is a disturbance, the market will face a test

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